歐洲面臨的另一個危機

經濟學人

Population and recession
人口與經濟衰退

Europe’s other crisis
歐洲面臨的另一個危機

Recession is bringing Europe’s brief fertility rally to a shuddering halt

經濟衰退使歐洲短暫的生育高潮驟然停止

EUROPE’S crisis is worse than it looks. As if the continent’s troubled financial markets and economy were not a big enough burden, a decade-long (and largely unnoticed) improvement in its fertility rate seems to have come to an abrupt end.

歐洲所面臨的危機其實質遠比看起來的糟糕。好像是混亂的金融市場與衰退的經濟給這個大陸帶來的負擔還不夠重似的，歐洲生育率在走了長達十年（幾乎被忽視）的上坡路後又驟然停止了。

Of the 15 countries that have reported figures so far this year, 11 saw falls in their fertility rates in 2011 (the fertility rate is the number of children a woman can expect during her lifetime). Some of the biggest declines occurred in countries hardest-hit by the euro crisis. Spain’s fertility rate fell from 1.46 in 2008 to around 1.38 in 2011. Latvia’s fell from 1.44 to below 1.20. Tomas Sobotka of the Vienna Institute of Demography points out that, in these countries, the fertility rise of the previous ten years has been wiped out in three. Big declines also occurred in Nordic countries that do not have fast-rising unemployment or big cuts in state spending. Norway’s fertility rate fell from 1.95 to 1.88 in 2010-11; Denmark’s from 1.88 to 1.76. But whether countries have high fertility rates, like Britain, or low ones, like Hungary, the trend is similar: a ten-year fertility rise stopped around 2008 as the economic crisis hit, and started to slide in 2011 (see chart 1).

到目前為止，今年已提交數據的15個國家中有11個國家2011年的人口出生率下降（生育率指一個婦女一生中的平均生育子女數）。生育率跌幅最大國家中有一些就是受歐元危機打擊最嚴重的國家。西班牙的生育率從2008年的1.46下降到了2011年的1.38。拉脫維亞的生育率則從1.44降到了1.20以下。維也納人口統計學協會的托馬斯•索博特卡指出，這些國家前十年的生育率上升被三年的下降抵消。一些北歐國家雖然並未出現激增的失業率，也未大幅削減政府開支，但生育率跌幅仍然很大。2010年至2011年間，挪威的生育率從1.95下降到了1.88，丹麥則從1.88下降到了1.76。但是，無論是像英國那樣有著高生育率的國家還是如匈牙利一般生育率低下的國家，這些國家的生育率所呈現的趨勢如出一轍：受經濟危機影響，生育率在上升了十年之後，於2008年前後停止上升，並從2011年起下滑（見圖1）。

In the markets, three years is an age; in demography, it is the blink of an eye. Nine months at least must pass between an event and a corresponding change in the birth rate. Demographic statistics also tend to lag by a year or so. To see such a change in trend so soon after the start of recession is remarkable. But although there is a link between hard times and family formation, its nature is controversial. Adam Smith thought that economic uncertainty was bad for fertility. Others argued that recession increases births, by lowering the opportunity cost of children and encouraging women to have babies they wanted anyway during periods of unemployment.

從市場角度看，三年是一段很長的時間；從人口統計學角度看，三年不過是一眨眼的功夫。一件事對人們的影響以及因此造成的生育率的改變至少需要九個月（懷孕期）的時間才能體現出來。在人口統計上也是如此，影響會滯後一年左右才體現出來。在經濟衰退開始之後如此短暫的時間裡能看到出生率的變化趨勢是很驚人的。但是，盡管經濟蕭條與家庭組成存在聯系，但這種聯系的本質存在爭議。亞當•斯密認為經濟的不確定性對生育率的提升有著消極的影響。但也有人認為經濟衰退會降低生育孩子的機會成本，鼓勵婦女在失業期間生育本來就打算要的孩子，從而提高出生率。

Europe’s recent experience supports Smith. The economy has acted on population trends through migration, marriages and births. In some countries, recession has caused migrants to return home—and those migrants had high fertility. Spain saw an immigration wave from Latin America in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Partly because of this, the number of births in Spain exploded from 363,500 in 1995 to 518,500 in 2008 (a 43% rise). But as migrants went home, the increase in births went into reverse, falling to 482,700 in the year to June 2011. Marriages traced a similar course, rising from 199,000 in 1995 to peak at 214,300 in 2004 before tumbling to 164,600 in 2011.

歐洲最近的經歷印證了亞當•斯密的觀點。經濟通過移民、婚姻與出生人數這三方面影響著人口趨勢。在一些國家，經濟衰退驅使移民回國，這些移民的生育率較高。西班牙在上個世紀90年代晚期和本世紀初見證了一場來自拉丁美洲的移民潮。西班牙的生育人數從1995年的363500人暴增到2008年的518500人（增加了43%），其中部分原因正是此次移民潮。但隨著移民回國，出生率的增加發生了逆轉，到2011年六月西班牙生育人數下降到了482700人。結婚對數的走向也同移民人數一樣。1995年結婚對數為199000對，到2004年達到頂峰，為214300對。之後下跌，到2011年僅為164600對。

Not all migrants have behaved in the same way. Relatively few Poles have left Britain. And some migrants came from places with lower fertility than their hosts (eg, Balts in Scandinavia). But in most countries with large populations of untethered migrants, a recession-induced reversal of migration has cut fertility.

但也並非所有的移民都選擇了回國，離開英國的波蘭人就相對較少。也有一些移民（如斯堪的納維亞半島的波羅的人）本身就來自生育率低於移民國的地區。但在大多數有許多喜歡多生孩子的移民的國家中，經濟衰退引起的逆轉遷移已經導致了生育率的下降。

Recession has affected the marriage and birth rates of native-born citizens, too. If young couples wait until they have a secure income before setting up home and having children, there will be a link between family formation and unemployment (especially male unemployment). France Prioux, of the Institut national d’etudes demographiques, plotted French unemployment against couples forming a union (marriage or cohabitation) over more than 20 years. The result is an almost perfect mirror image (see chart 2).

經濟衰退也同樣影響到了本土公民的結婚率及出生率。如果年輕夫婦在有了固定收入後才建立家庭、養育子女，那麼失業（尤其是男性失業）與家庭的形成就有了密切的聯系。法國人口研究所的Prioux繪制了一張過去20多年法國失業率與男女結合（結婚或同居）情況的圖表，結果幾乎就是一張完美的鏡面圖像（見圖2）。

These numbers go only to 2002, but the pattern seems to continue. America’s Pew Research Centre asked 18-to-24-year-olds about their reaction to the recession of 2009: 20% said they had postponed marriage. Mr Sobotka plotted the link between unemployment and fertility in Latvia. He, too, found a mirror image, with births falling as unemployment took off, then rising as jobs flowed back. In Europe there is little doubt that recession has reduced fertility by cutting migration, marriages and births.

雖然上圖只研究了2002年以前的數據，但這種趨勢看起來並沒有停止。美國皮尤研究中心於2009年開展了一項調查，詢問了美國18至24歲的公民對經濟蕭條所采取的反應：其中有20%的人稱他們推遲了結婚年齡。索博特卡先生也繪制了拉脫維亞失業率與生育率關系的圖表，他同樣發現了一張鏡面圖像。失業率上升，出生人數便下降；工作增加，生育率就隨之上升。毫無疑問，在歐洲，因經濟衰退引起的移民人數、結婚人數以及出生人數的減少導致了生育率的降低。

What is in doubt is whether the fall is permanent or temporary. There are different ways to reduce fertility. Couples can decide to have fewer children, or can postpone the birth of a child. Both lower the fertility rate; but in the second case, it may recover later. Demographers call this a “tempo” effect.

不能肯定的是這種生育率的下降是永久性的還是暫時性的。想要降低生育率可以采取不同的方法。夫婦可以減少他們生育的子女數量，或者也可以推遲生育時間。這兩種方法都能降低生育率，但後者造成的生育率降低將在不久後恢復。人口學家稱之為“步調”效果。

In most of the world, fertility rates have fallen because couples want fewer children. But a recent paper by Mr Sobotka and John Bongaarts of the Population Council, an American think-tank, argues that in Europe the tempo effect is what counts. As they note, the average age of first births has risen in most of western Europe since 1970. In 1970 the age at which most women had their first child was 22- 25. In 2008 it was 27-29. But from about 2000 to 2008 the pace of increase slowed markedly: women were no longer deferring children as much, and some were starting to have the children whose births they had postponed. Now the number of first births is falling more than later births in some countries, suggesting that people are postponing starting families.

在世界上的絕大部分地區，夫妻想要的子女數量減少導致了生育率降低。但是，近來索博特卡先生與來自美國智囊團人口協會的約翰邦加特斯共同完成了一篇論文，文章稱影響歐洲生育率的正是“步調”效果。他們指出，自1970年以來，大多數西歐國家的婦女所生的第一胎平均年齡都增加了。1970年，大多數婦女生第一胎的平均年齡為22-25歲。到了2008年，這個平均年齡則上升到了27-29歲。但從2000年到2008年，第一胎平均年齡增速明顯減緩：婦女不再像以前那樣推遲生育時間，其中一些人也將原先推遲剩余的孩子提早納入生育計劃。現在一些國家的第一胎數量正在減少，其減少幅度大於第二胎數量的減少幅度，這意味著人們在推遲組建家庭的時間。

Three broad lessons emerge. First, population trends are more sensitive to the economic cycle than might be expected. Population trends are thought to set the stage for everything else (“demography is destiny” said a 19th-century French scientist). Second, the rise in fertility in the 2000s suggests that not all of Europe is caught in a low-fertility trap. Scandinavia, Britain and France all have relatively high fertility. Third, governments may have scope for policy measures to moderate the fall. Old-fashioned demographic policies were usually “natalist”: they rewarded women who had many children. (Russia still has these.) They almost never work.

三大顯著的經驗教訓出現在我們面前。首先，人口趨勢對經濟周期的反應比人們預期的更為敏感。而人口趨勢被認為是其他一切的基礎（19世紀的一位法國科學家曾說“人口就是命運”）。其次，本世紀初出現的生育率上升表明並不是整個歐洲都陷於低生育率的困境中。斯堪的納維亞半島、英國和法國都有著較高的生育率。最後，政府的政策措施必須留有一定余地以緩和生育率降低的狀況。老式的生育政策通常都是鼓勵生育的：政府會獎勵那些生育許多孩子的婦女。（俄國仍舊在使用這種政策。）但這一招幾乎從未有效過。

But if demographic tempo is what matters, Europe’s fertility might be more susceptible to government policy. Couples might respond to incentives like cheaper kindergartens or more parental leave by changing the spacing of children they want anyway. If Europe is to avoid yet another downward twist in its demographic spiral, “tempo-adjusted fertility” may hold the secret
但如果是人口步調效果起作用，歐洲的生育率可能更易受政府政策的影響。更便宜的幼兒園收費或更長的育嬰假之類的鼓勵性措施可能使夫婦們縮短孩子之間的年齡間隔。如果歐洲想要在生育漩渦中避免再次遇到急轉直下的狀況，“調節生育節奏”也許可以避免歐洲人口再次減少。