經濟學人：《騎角難下》

最新一期經濟學人雜誌在專訪馬英九總統後，寫了一篇《騎角難下》，這篇文章從馬英九的形象入手，緊接著帶到台灣的反服貿抗議行動，最後評論馬英九對中國的方針及外交政策。一位網友將此篇文章翻譯成中文，翻譯全文如下。

【On the antlers of a dilemma】
The ambitions of Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan’s president, collide with popular suspicion of China
【騎角難下】
台灣總統馬英九的雄心正與多數人民對中國的疑慮正面對撞

THE fresh-faced good looks have been lined and drawn by the cares of office. His immaculate English is forsaken for the dignity of immaculate Mandarin. Patient replies to questions come wearily, as if said many times before. Yet, six years into his presidency, Ma Ying-jeou’s hair remains as lush and jet-black as any Chinese Politburo member’s. And, speaking in the presidential palace in Taipei, he remains as unwilling as any leader in Beijing to admit to any fundamental flaws in strategy.

他的形象由府方打點得十分體面。他流利地說著無懈可擊的中文，為了符合其治理國家的正當性，雖然他過去其實流利地說著無懈可擊的英文。他對問題總是耐心回答，但他的回答卻令人厭煩，因為他總是再三重複著一樣的說詞。然而，如同中南海的中國政府掌權人，任期進入第六年的馬英九總統，油頭依然晶亮、烏黑。同時，如同北京當局的任何一位領導人，當馬總統在總統府發言時，依然不願意承認領導策略有根本性的缺失。

Perhaps Mr Ma draws inspiration from his portrait of Sun Yat-sen, founder of his ruling party, the Kuomintang (KMT), and, in 1912, of the Republic of China to which Taiwan’s government still owes its name. Sun is revered as a nationalist hero not just by the KMT but, across the Taiwan Strait, by the Chinese Communist Party too. Mr Ma may also hope to be feted on both sides of the strait—in his case as a leader responsible for a historic rapprochement. For now, however, reconciliation between Taiwan and China remains distant. And Mr Ma, once the KMT’s most popular politician, is taunted by opponents as the “9% president”, a reference to his approval ratings in opinion polls last autumn.

也許，馬先生是以個人所屬政黨「中國國民黨」的創辦人，也是「中華民國」這個1912創立的國家其建國元首－孫逸仙為榜樣。（台灣政府至今仍使用此國號）孫先生不只被國民黨視為國家英雄，在台灣海峽的另一邊，中國共產黨也是如此看待他。馬先生可能也希望以「歷史性和解之領導人」這樣的形象，被兩岸共同簇擁。然而，在此刻，台灣與中國間的和解依然有很長的路要走。而一度是國民黨最受歡迎政治人物的馬先生，被反對派冠上「9趴總統」的綽號，嘲諷他去年秋季的民調之低。

Improving relations with China has been the central theme of his administration, after the tensions of eight years of rule by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which leans towards declaring formal independence from the mainland. Mr Ma can boast of 21 agreements signed with China. He reels off the numbers of two fast-integrating economies: a tenfold increase in six years in mainland tourists to Taiwan, to 2.85m in 2013; cross-strait flights from none at all to 118 every day; two-way trade, including with Hong Kong, up to $160 billion a year.

在民進黨八年執政時的緊繃，「台獨」傾向明顯的政策方向之後，「促進對中國關係」一直是他施政的主軸。馬先生誇耀自己與中國簽署的21項協約。他大談傲人數據；大陸來台觀光人口數在六年內成長十倍，2013年來到285萬人次；兩岸直航班機從無到每日118班次；雙邊貿易（含香港部分）來到每年1600億美元。

China’s strategy to reabsorb Taiwan is plain. As the island’s economy becomes more intertwined with that of the vast mainland, China thinks, resistance to unification will wane. Then Taiwan becomes an “autonomous” part of China—like Hong Kong, though allowed its own army. Taiwan will return to the motherland without resort to the missiles and increasingly powerful armed forces ranged against it. But as Mr Ma sees it, cross-strait “rapprochement” is a first line of defence against Chinese aggression, since “a unilateral move by the mainland to change the status quo by non-peaceful means would come at a dear price”. Politics in Taiwan is framed as a debate about independence or unification but is really about preserving the status quo.

中國「再接納」台灣的策略十分簡單明白。中國想的是，當這個島上的經濟活動與對岸日趨緊密，對統一的抗拒將會日益微弱。屆時，像香港一樣，即使擁有自己的軍隊，台灣也會成為中國的一個「自治區」。無須訴諸飛彈、與日俱增的武力，台灣就會重回「祖國懷抱」。但是，在馬先生看來，因為「中國方面將為任何單方面、非和平方式、意圖改變現狀的舉動，付出鉅額代價」，兩岸的「和解」成了台灣對抗中國侵略的第一道防線。台灣的政治，與其說是「統獨之爭」，其實本質上是「是否維持現狀之爭」。

The next step in rapprochement with China would be a meeting between political leaders. In February in Nanjing, once the capital of a KMT government of all China, ministers from China and Taiwan held their first formal meeting since 1949. Mr Ma hoped to meet China’s president, Xi Jinping, in Beijing this November, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit. To accommodate Hong Kong and Taiwan, APEC’s members are not “countries” but “economies”. So Mr Xi and Mr Ma could meet as “economic leaders”, sidestepping the tricky protocol that usually dogs relations, with China viewing Taiwan as a mere province. The Chinese demurred. But Mr Ma thinks a meeting somewhere is “not outside the realm of possibility”.

兩岸和解的下一步，會是政治領袖的會面。今年的二月，在南京（國民黨政權仍統治中國時的首都），中國與台灣官員自1949年（兩岸分治）以來首次舉行正式會談。馬先生希望在十一月的「APEC=亞太經合會」中，與中國最高領導人習近平在北京會面。為了納入香港、台灣，APEC成員不是「國家」，而是「經濟體」。所以習先生與馬先生可用「經濟體領導人」的身分見面，將扯後腿的繁文縟節放在一旁。（因為中國視台灣為一個省分）中國反對此構想。但是，馬先生認為在其他場合會面「不是不可能」。

This backdrop explains why a protest movement against a services-trade agreement with the mainland is more than a little local difficulty for Mr Ma. Students occupying parliament have resorted to undemocratic means, and many of the arguments they and the DPP make about the trade agreement are specious. But they have tapped a vein of popular mistrust of Mr Ma and of economic integration with the mainland. A split persists between native Taiwanese, on the island for generations, and mainlanders, like Mr Ma, whose families came over as the KMT lost the civil war in the 1940s. Protesters portray Mr Ma as either a mainland stooge or as clueless and out of touch. In the occupied parliament, student caricatures give him antlers, a reference to a slip he once made when he appeared to suggest that the deer-antlers used in Chinese medicine were in fact hair from the animal’s ears.

以上背景說明了，為何對馬先生來說，此時反對「服務貿易協定」抗議行動，並非「島內小問題」。學生佔領國會已屬非民主行為，許多學生與民進黨對「服務貿易協定」提出的質疑也僅「貌似合理」。但是，他們觸動了普羅大眾對馬先生的不信任，及對「與中國經貿整合」的不信任。台灣存在著極大的分歧，一方是數代以來生長在台灣的「本省族群」；另一方是1940年代隨著國民黨於內戰中失利後來台的「外省族群」，如同馬先生一樣。抗議者認為馬先生要不是甘心作中國的傀儡，就是他毫無頭緒，與人民想法脫節。在被佔據的國會議場中，學生在馬先生的肖像上添了對「鹿角」，因他在談話中一時不察，將中藥的鹿茸認做「鹿耳朵裡面的毛」。

Mr Ma says public opinion supports a “Ma-Xi” summit. Joseph Wu of the DPP, however, claims such a meeting would actually damage the KMT in the next presidential election, due in 2016; rather, he says, Mr Ma is trying to leave a personal legacy. The DPP’s lead in the polls alarms not just the Chinese government but also America, which could do without another flare-up in a dangerous region. The stronger China grows, the more Taiwan’s security depends on commitments from America. It switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979, but Congress then passed a law obliging it to help Taiwan defend itself.

馬先生稱人民支持「馬習會」。然而，民進黨駐美代表吳釗燮（Joseph Wu）指出，這樣的會面實際上會打擊國民黨2016總統大選的勝算，馬先生是想留下「個人歷史定位」。民進黨在民調中的領先，不只是給中國政府的一個警訊，其實對美國來說也是，因為此刻美國承受不起在另一個情勢緊張區域的一點星星之火。中國若繼續壯大，台灣的安全將更仰賴美國對保護台灣安全的承諾。美國在1979年時與北京領導政權建交，在外交戰略上換邊支持；但是美國國會之後也通過法案，約束美國須幫助台灣維持其安全。

All political lives end…

所有政治人物終將鞠躬下台…

Mr Ma says relations with America are better than they have ever been at least since 1979 and perhaps before. Others are doubtful. In all the talk of America’s “pivot” to Asia, its promises to Taiwan are rarely mentioned. Many in Taiwan paid attention when John Mearsheimer, an American academic, suggested in the National Interest, a policy journal, that there is “a reasonable chance American policymakers will eventually conclude that it makes good strategic sense to abandon Taiwan and to allow China to coerce it into accepting unification.” For some, abandonment is a fact of life and unification a matter of time. “No one is on our side strategically, diplomatically, politically; we have to count on China’s goodwill,” an academic in Taipei argues.

馬先生表示台美關係是史上最好，至少自1979年來是最好，甚至可以再往前算。其他人則存疑。當談到美國在亞洲的許多戰略樞紐，美國對台灣的承諾鮮少被提起。當美國學者John Mearsheimer在關於美國國家政策期刊「National Interest」撰文表示「有相當程度的可能性，美國政府的決策者最終會得出『戰略上來說，放棄干預使中國得以強迫台灣接受統一，是非常有道理的』，這樣的結論」，此番論述引來許多台灣人關切。對某些美國學者而言，美國最終放棄干預兩岸事務是不可避免的，台灣被統一也只是時間的問題。一位台北的學者指出，「不管在戰略上，外交上或政治上，都沒有人站在台灣這邊。我們必須仰賴中國的善意。」

Mr Ma has tried to steer what seems a sensible middle course between such defeatism and the adventurism of those in the DPP who would like to confront and challenge China. But he sounds weary with the effort, and Taiwan’s people seem weary of him. Their pragmatism and the DPP’s internecine strife may yet see them elect another KMT president in 2016. But if Mr Ma hoped to leave office with cross-strait relations stabilised, and with his own role as an historic peacemaker recognised on both sides and around the world, he seems likely to be disappointed.

馬先生試圖在上述的失敗主義與某些激進民進黨份子的提案中（面對並挑戰中國）取得一個合理的折衷之道。但是，他聽起來聲嘶力竭，而台灣人民似乎對他感到厭倦。台灣人務實的天性，加上民進黨內部相互的派系鬥爭，在2016年可能還是會由國民黨籍總統出線。但是，如果馬先生希望當他卸下總統職務時，兩岸關係和諧穩定、他個人被兩地甚至是全球奉為「功在兩岸」的歷史性人物，看來，他可能會失望。

沃草（Watchout）希望做一個農夫，提供公民更好的參與時政的平台和工具，在這公民社會的土壤施肥灌溉，讓這個理想的種子在每個人心中萌芽滋長，建立真正的公民社會。