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在中國，工資快速上漲可能是讓製造商和共產黨領導層感到頭疼的問題，但對Ngo Truong Chinh這樣的越南人來說，卻是個好消息。
Chinh最近在XP Power公司剛在越南平陽省興辦的一家工廠找到一份質量控制經理的工作。平陽地處越南主要工業地帶，靠近胡志明市。XP Power是一家在英國上市的電子零配件製造商。
“在越南，勞動力成本較低，但員工技能不錯，”35歲的電子系畢業生Chinh表示，“這是很多外國製造商在越南投資的原因。”
XP Power是希望將生產業務擴大到中國以外地區的很多製造商之一，它們希望利用其他地區較低的薪資，並減少將業務集中在一個地區的風險，去年，泰國破壞性巨大的洪水以及日本海嘯和地震對工業的影響突顯出了這一風險。
中國擁有經驗豐富的勞動力、成熟的供應鏈以及巨大的規模，因此沒多少人認為中國作為世界工廠的地位正面臨威脅。但中國螺旋上升的薪資成本，促使越來越多的勞動密集型製造商轉移到薪資更低的國家，例如柬埔寨、印尼和越南。
在越南，非熟練工人的月薪一般為100美元至150美元，而在中國南方的製造業中心，非熟練工人一個月有可能掙到300美元。盡管越南的基礎設施無法與更為富有的北方鄰國相比，但工廠經理們稱，他們能夠應付偶爾的停電和越南不太發達的港口的作業延誤。
越南每年向歐洲和美國出口數十億美元的基礎製造品，例如鞋子、服裝和木製傢具。2010年，越南超過中國，成為國際運動品牌耐克(Nike)最大的鞋類製造基地。
更多諸如XP Power之類的公司的到來，將檢驗越南是否擁有吸引技術更先進、附加值更高的製造商所需的熟練工人和基礎設施。XP Power主要生產工業電源。芯片製造商英特爾(Intel)和韓國電子產品集團三星(Samsung)等先行者已在越南設廠並在擴大生產。芬蘭手機公司諾基亞(Nokia)去年宣佈，將在越南北部建設一家手機工廠。
“越南的生產率稍微落後於中國，”美國電子產品製造商捷普科技(Jabil Circuit)越南主管S•克薩凡(S. Kesavan)表示，“但最近中國成本的上漲促使我們將業務轉移到別處，以保持競爭力。”
捷普科技計劃在未來兩年，將其在胡志明市工廠的員工數量從1000人增加到3000人，該工廠生產電度表和信用卡刷卡機。
但越南的年度通脹率為亞洲最高，甚至在2月通脹率放緩至16.4%以後還是如此，因此該國的低成本優勢不會維系很長時間。根據管理咨詢公司麥肯錫(McKinsey)最近的一份報告，盡管越南的人口年齡中值為27.4歲，低於中國的35.2歲，但越南人口正在老齡化，人口紅利正開始縮減。
分析師表示，越南必須放棄對低成本製造業的依賴，結束最近的經濟動盪，並履行讓經濟迅速增長的承諾。
一些製造商已經在對越南的勞動力短缺發出抱怨。麥肯錫稱，如果該國的共產黨政府要實現到2020年經濟每年增長7%至8%的遠大目標，該國必須將勞動生產率提高50%以上，以彌補勞動力增長放緩的影響。
全球領先木製戶外傢具出口商之一、丹麥的ScanCom International是一家計劃在越南提升價值鏈的公司。該公司首席執行官斯蒂格•馬斯布爾(Stig Maasbøl)表示，在越南平陽的工廠面積很大，擁有4000名員工，通過引進更先進的設備、將廢物變成新產品以及加強培訓，該公司已將員工人均產值提高了一倍。
該公司計劃在未來兩年通過引入更先進的機械，將人均產值再擴大一倍，例如引進鑽探和砂磨機器人，可以在一個人的監督下完成50個人的工作。
他表示：“如果越南的吸引力只停留在薪資方面，企業很快就會把目光轉向柬埔寨和緬甸。”
Vietnam offers companies China alternative
Rapidly rising wages may be a headache for manufacturers and the communist leadership in China, but they are good news for people like Ngo Truong Chinh in Vietnam.
Mr Chinh recently took a job as a quality control manager at a factory that XP Power, the UK-listed electronic components manufacturer, has just opened in Binh Duong province, part of Vietnam’s main industrial belt near Ho Chi Minh City.
“Labour costs are cheaper in Vietnam but the workers’ skills are good,” says Mr Chinh, a 35-year-old electronics graduate. “That’s why many foreign manufacturers are investing in Vietnam.”
XP Power is just one of many manufacturers looking to diversify production beyond their China base to capitalise on lower wages and mitigate the risks of concentration in one location – a peril highlighted last year by the industrial impact of the devastating Thai floods and Japanese tsunami and earthquake.
With China’s experienced workforce, well-developed supply chain and vast scale, few people believe its position as the world’s workshop is under threat. But spiralling wage costs in China have driven a growing number of labour-intensive manufacturers to switch to countries with lower wages, such as Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam.
Unskilled workers in Vietnam are typically paid $100-150 a month, compared to the $300 their counterparts might receive in the manufacturing clusters of southern China. And while Vietnam’s infrastructure cannot compare with its much wealthier northern neighbour, factory managers say that they can cope with both the occasional power cuts and delays at Vietnam’s under-developed ports.
Vietnam already exports billions of dollars of basic manufactured goods such as shoes, clothes and wooden furniture to Europe and the US each year. It surpassed China in 2010 as the biggest source of footwear for Nike, the international sports brand.
The arrival of more companies like XP Power, which makes industrial power supplies, will test whether Vietnam has the skilled workers and infrastructure needed to tempt more technologically-advanced, higher value-added manufacturers. Pioneers like chipmaker Intel and Samsung, the South Korean electronics group, have already set up factories in Vietnam and are ramping up production. Nokia, the Finnish mobile phone, announced plans last year to build a mobile phone factory in northern Vietnam.
“Productivity in Vietnam is slightly behind China,” says S. Kesavan, the Vietnam head of Jabil Circuit, a US electronics manufacturer. “But the recent escalation of costs in China is making us relocate in order to be competitive.”
Jabil plans to expand the workforce at its Ho Chi Minh City factory, which produces energy meters and credit card readers, from 1,000 to 3,000 employees over the next two years.
But with the highest annual inflation rate in Asia – even after price increases slowed to 16.4 per cent in February – Vietnam’s low-cost advantage will not last long. While the median age of 27.4 years is below China’s 35.2 years, the population is ageing, according to a recent report by McKinsey, the management consultant, and Vietnam’s demographic dividend is starting to shrink.
Analysts say that Vietnam must move away from its dependence on low-cost manufacturing to put an end to recent economic turbulence and deliver on its promises of rapid growth.
Some manufacturers are already complaining of labour shortages. McKinsey says Vietnam must increase labour productivity by more than 50 per cent to make up for the slowing workforce growth, if the communist government is to meet its ambitious target of 7-8 per cent annual economic growth by 2020.
Danish-owned ScanCom International, one of the world’s leading exporters of wooden outdoor furniture, is one company looking to move up the value chain in Vietnam. It has already doubled output per employee among the 4,000 workers at its sprawling Binh Duong factory by introducing more modern equipment, turning waste into new products and improving training, according to Stig Maasbøl, ScanCom’s chief executive.
ScanCom plans to double output again over the next two years by bringing in more advanced machinery, such as drilling and sanding robots that can do the work of 50 people under the supervision of just one.
“If Vietnam’s attraction is only wages, companies will soon be looking to Cambodia and Myanmar,” he says.
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