2013, like 1913, could see epic transformations in world order

Simon Tisdall
guardian.co.uk

For Britain, a proud imperial power holding sway over vast territories spanning the globe, and for the other dominant European empires, 1913 was the year it all began to go wrong. Will 2013 bring similarly epic transformations in the current world order? As was the case a century ago, seeds of change can be discerned. But the focus now is Asia, especially China.

A sense of Britain and its place in the world in 1913 is hard to ascertain from such a distance. But key facts and figures tell a story. Britain oversaw the biggest, wealthiest maritime empire ever known. London was the largest port in the world; Liverpool the second largest. Estimates suggest up to a fifth of the world's population, and perhaps a quarter of its land mass, were under direct or indirect British rule.

In 1913, for example, it was possible to walk (or ride) from Cairo to Cape Town without leaving British-controlled territory. At Westminster, Herbert Asquith, son of a Yorkshire tradesman, presided over a fifth consecutive year of Liberal party government. 1913 saw the first Chelsea flower show; Arsenal football club moved from Plumstead to a new stadium in Highbury; the British Board of Film Censors was created; and DH Lawrence published Sons and Lovers.

But if self-confidence was high, 1913 also saw its share of portentous events. Home rule for Ireland divided the House of Commons and House of Lords, Emily Davison threw herself under the King's horse at the Epsom Derby as suffragette agitation peaked, the Balkans were in flames, and the Kaiser told the king of the Belgians during a November visit to Berlin that war with France was inevitable.

In South Africa, Mahatma Gandhi was arrested for leading a strike by Indian workers. Driven by the Royal Navy's insatiable demand for coal, Welsh mine-owners took risks and workers paid the price: a methane explosion at Senghenydd colliery, near Caerphilly, killed 439 people, still Britain's worst mine disaster. In 1913, like a bad omen, news reached home of Captain Scott's death during his failed attempt to reach the south pole.

Across the Atlantic, meanwhile, the bumptious US challenge to European military and economic suzerainty was on the rise. Woodrow Wilson was inaugurated as 28th US president, Henry Ford launched the first moving vehicle assembly line, the first household fridge was manufactured, and the first newspaper crossword puzzle (with 32 clues) was published by the New York World. With an eye on Europe, Wilson announced in October 1913 that the US would "never" attack another country.

The first total or world war, which engulfed Europe the following year, may be said with hindsight to have changed everything. As generations of young men were slaughtered on the western and eastern fronts, old certainties and prejudices (such as denying the vote to women) crumbled. European powers fought to exhaustion, while in Russia revolution swept away the tsar.

As was to happen again in 1941, the US found it impossible to stay out of the war, and Wilson sent his troops to France. For the first but not the last time, an American president became a broker and guarantor of global peace.

The collapse of the old order proved irreparable. Three competing governance models – communism, fascism, and capitalism – produced another, even more murderous conflict only 20 years after the last. The second world war and its aftermath confirmed the passing of Britain as a global power and in effect entrenched the true heirs to the age of empire – the US and the Soviet Union. Amid the spectre of nuclear annihilation, the post-imperial world was once again divided into rival camps as the cold war took root and spread.

Making predictions is a chancy business. But 2013, like 1913, could prove the precursor to another seminal turning point in the global order. China is rapidly approaching the point when the size of its economy will surpass that of the US. Its military capability is expanding hand over fist and so, too, is the confidence with which it asserts its sovereign and territorial claims.

Chinese money pays for US debt; Chinese tourists boost the coffers of the European nations that oppressed their forebears. Unlike the west, China is returning to growth – in fact, it never stopped. In 2013, China, with its alien political system, could definitively become the motor that keeps the global economic show on the road, opening the gate to a Chinese century.

With overriding economic power inevitably comes political dominance, and the US, like Britain before it, will have to get used to the change. In 2013 the world may learn to echo John F Kennedy in proclaiming: "Ich bin ein Beijinger!"For Britain, a proud imperial power holding sway over vast territories spanning the globe, and for the other dominant European empires, 1913 was the year it all began to go wrong. Will 2013 bring similarly epic transformations in the current world order? As was the case a century ago, seeds of change can be discerned. But the focus now is Asia, especially China.

A sense of Britain and its place in the world in 1913 is hard to ascertain from such a distance. But key facts and figures tell a story. Britain oversaw the biggest, wealthiest maritime empire ever known. London was the largest port in the world; Liverpool the second largest. Estimates suggest up to a fifth of the world's population, and perhaps a quarter of its land mass, were under direct or indirect British rule.

In 1913, for example, it was possible to walk (or ride) from Cairo to Cape Town without leaving British-controlled territory. At Westminster, Herbert Asquith, son of a Yorkshire tradesman, presided over a fifth consecutive year of Liberal party government. 1913 saw the first Chelsea flower show; Arsenal football club moved from Plumstead to a new stadium in Highbury; the British Board of Film Censors was created; and DH Lawrence published Sons and Lovers.

But if self-confidence was high, 1913 also saw its share of portentous events. Home rule for Ireland divided the House of Commons and House of Lords, Emily Davison threw herself under the King's horse at the Epsom Derby as suffragette agitation peaked, the Balkans were in flames, and the Kaiser told the king of the Belgians during a November visit to Berlin that war with France was inevitable.

In South Africa, Mahatma Gandhi was arrested for leading a strike by Indian workers. Driven by the Royal Navy's insatiable demand for coal, Welsh mine-owners took risks and workers paid the price: a methane explosion at Senghenydd colliery, near Caerphilly, killed 439 people, still Britain's worst mine disaster. In 1913, like a bad omen, news reached home of Captain Scott's death during his failed attempt to reach the south pole.

Across the Atlantic, meanwhile, the bumptious US challenge to European military and economic suzerainty was on the rise. Woodrow Wilson was inaugurated as 28th US president, Henry Ford launched the first moving vehicle assembly line, the first household fridge was manufactured, and the first newspaper crossword puzzle (with 32 clues) was published by the New York World. With an eye on Europe, Wilson announced in October 1913 that the US would "never" attack another country.

The first total or world war, which engulfed Europe the following year, may be said with hindsight to have changed everything. As generations of young men were slaughtered on the western and eastern fronts, old certainties and prejudices (such as denying the vote to women) crumbled. European powers fought to exhaustion, while in Russia revolution swept away the tsar.

As was to happen again in 1941, the US found it impossible to stay out of the war, and Wilson sent his troops to France. For the first but not the last time, an American president became a broker and guarantor of global peace.

The collapse of the old order proved irreparable. Three competing governance models – communism, fascism, and capitalism – produced another, even more murderous conflict only 20 years after the last. The second world war and its aftermath confirmed the passing of Britain as a global power and in effect entrenched the true heirs to the age of empire – the US and the Soviet Union. Amid the spectre of nuclear annihilation, the post-imperial world was once again divided into rival camps as the cold war took root and spread.

Making predictions is a chancy business. But 2013, like 1913, could prove the precursor to another seminal turning point in the global order. China is rapidly approaching the point when the size of its economy will surpass that of the US. Its military capability is expanding hand over fist and so, too, is the confidence with which it asserts its sovereign and territorial claims.

Chinese money pays for US debt; Chinese tourists boost the coffers of the European nations that oppressed their forebears. Unlike the west, China is returning to growth – in fact, it never stopped. In 2013, China, with its alien political system, could definitively become the motor that keeps the global economic show on the road, opening the gate to a Chinese century.

With overriding economic power inevitably comes political dominance, and the US, like Britain before it, will have to get used to the change. In 2013 the world may learn to echo John F Kennedy in proclaiming: "Ich bin ein Beijinger!"